3 Germans tell me about the energy crisis
Is there a crisis?
The great thing about Germans is that they travel a lot, so I get to talk to them when they come to Asia. Here’s what three different German men, all in their twenties and thirties, have told me about the energy crisis.
Wolf
*I talked to Wolf after Russia invaded Ukraine and the sanctions were levied. The full energy crisis had not yet arisen.
Wolf told me that detaching from Russian energy won’t be difficult. Germany can “shut down its industrial plants for a while,” as simple as flicking a light switch. In fact, Wolf told me that he’s actually concerned that one day soon Germany will start producing too much energy. Once that happens, he believes that the country will use the excess energy to produce hydrogen, either for storage or fueling cars, I wasn’t clear on that point.
Simon
Simon recently completed his graduate studies in environmental business engineering. He hopes to find employment with a renewable energy firm after returning from his sabbatical in Asia. Simon dismissed the energy crisis in Germany and said that Germans have a tendency to make a big deal out of everything. Simon’s primary concern is that, “politicians are talking about building out non-renewable energy sources and that makes me sad. This is an opportunity to invest in renewable energy and I wish that Germany would wake up to it.”
Dominick
Dominick echoed Simon’s sentiment. Dom also claimed that, “Germans make a big deal out of every story, especially the media.” According to Dom, “Germany has been in many bad situations before and we’ve always found a way out. I am not concerned about this crisis.” In terms of the country’s industrial core, Dom said, “maybe BCAF won’t be competitive with Chinese producers but we can find other buyers for our products.”
What’s really going on?
Not that I walk the streets looking for Europeans to interview, but I’ve yet to meet a German who is genuinely worried about Russia pulling the plug on cheap energy. Are these German folk right, is it really just the media making a big deal out of nothing? I’m completely unqualified to say! I’m not an energy expert and I don’t know what tricks the technocrats can pull from the hat.
Maybe the Germans end up spending half a trillion Euros to buy a shitload of LNG and that’s that. They’re indebted but they survive the winter relatively unscathed. However, even though I’m not an energy expert (or amateur), when I use my pointy brain to stare at this problem I’m inclined to think that this energy crisis could be worse than imagined. I’m going to write a post on lassitude towards disaster soon, stay tuned for that. However, the gist of what I think is that we’ve become accustomed to the modern good life, and we find it difficult to think about how wrong things can go.
The problem with downplaying the crisis is that if it turns out to be a really big fucking deal, most people are unprepared. If the situation goes from tolerable to quite bad in the space of a few weeks in January, then there could be societal mayhem.
I’m not hoping for that by any means, but it must be considered as a possibility. Mayhem would be far less likely if the average German was freaked out and getting into full prep mode now. In that case, should the worst happen the citizens would be prepared both physically and emotionally. And should everyone get prepared and then the winter is mild and nothing much comes of it, well, crisis averted! Schnapps and Frühstücksbier!
Better to think the beast is around the corner and be pleasantly surprised, than the other way around. Do with that information what you will.
