Can I find the perfect investing time frame?
Finding a time frame that suits my interests
I’ve crunched the numbers and come to the conclusion that there are exactly 349,489 unique trading and investing styles that you can make money with. The difficulty is that 349,488 of them just aren’t going to work for me.
To enjoy long term success I must find a style that suits me, and that I can stick with for years (decades) at a time. I reserve the right to change my mind at any time, and I won’t be dogmatic in my approach. However, as of now this is what I think could work for me.
A unique time frame
Day trading is out. I have zero interest in that malarkey and also I’m living in Asia and going to bed an hour or two after markets open. Swing trading, breakout trading and momentum trading are non-starters as well. Mostly because I don’t know what they are.
My time frame skews towards long term investing. I am comfortable sitting on an asset for months or years, and I’m undisturbed by volatility. If I have one edge in the markets, it’s my ability to stay calm in the face of huge drawdowns.
While I lean towards the long term time frame, the primary aspect of investing that I don’t embrace is the idea that I *must* hold a position for years at a time. In an ideal world my investment strategy would look something like,
Allocate 5 to 15% of my AUM to an asset which I hope will appreciate in the near future
Take profits on rips up
If the rip never comes (which is likely) I will hold the asset until it starts to perform, even if it takes a year or two
Even as I write these words my strategy sounds stupid. Maybe I should reframe it as: I invest for the long term but if there is a short term rip, I take profits. The key point, the foundation of my approach, is that I’m only investing in assets that I’m comfortable holding for years. I can’t see myself having a sizeable position in an asset which I think could do well in the short term, but is ultimately garbage.
I expect that over time my strategy will change. However, for now, the major advantage is that investing in quality plays to my number one goal: don’t blow up.
What I don’t want
By explicitly stating what I don’t care about, I hope to reduce feelings of fomo and regret. By consciously deciding that I’ll never invest in promising opportunities like Bubble Gum Dildo Corp, I won’t have to feel bad when “everyone” is up 150% and my position in long bonds is down 3%. Off the top of my head, here is everything that I don’t want to invest in…
Day trading
FX
Tech (although I am intrigued by semiconductors)
Financials
Asian markets (except for possibly Asian commodity producers)
China (I’m not a big fan of slave labor)
Healthcare
Food
Shipping (possible exception for tankers?)
Automotive companies
Airlines
Robotics
REITs
Media
Consumer staples
NFTs
Defense
Venture capital
Meme stocks
Retailers
Housing
Natgas
Anything promoted by Adam Neumann
What I like
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Commodities & commodity producers
Gold
Bonds
Even though this list is short, in terms of scope it’s still massive! Many traders/investors only focus on one of these markets. Over time I may specialize further.
Summation
Intention: make explicit statement about everything I will IGNORE. Reduce fomo, simplify process of immediately chucking 99 out of 100 trade ideas into the bin of inviability.
