December week 1 - Best podcasts & articles
The Christmas rally
What I’m thinking about
The perpetually irreverent Chris Irons summed up my feelings nicely when he went off on an interest rates tangent in his latest podcast.
The fact that the market is celebrating a 25 or 50 basis point over a 75 basis point in December, it’s absolutely insane. It’s like if the Fed took the economy outside and shot it four times in the head, and it was already dead, but then people were celebrating that instead of shooting it again in the head, the Fed’s just gonna take a baseball bat and club the lifeless corpse of our economy in the head.
There you have it, the most gory analysis money can buy. Major indicators are saying we’re in deep trouble, and the market is acting as if it wants to make a run to new highs. I’m not convinced. That being said, one thing I’ve gotten through my thick skull is nobody knows shit and betting it all on black is for punks. I’ve been scooping the dips and am about 50% invested now. If this really is the start of a new bull market (which I’m skeptical of) I’ll be alright. If we crash 40% from here, I’ll still be alright.
To round things out, I have mixed feelings on Musk but I like this quote. Hope your weekend is smashing!
Best of articles
Theme: A beautiful article from Steve Wilkinson about how inflation corrupts society and morals. Also, centralized government, family and values. Grade A reading material.
Theme: an insightful piece on how retail can outperform institutional money. Patience. Long term thinking. Ignore the headlines. See also my article: 5 reasons an individual investor can outperform the institutions.
Oikophobia: American Self-Contempt
Theme: When we (the citizens of a country) lack an external enemy/threat, we turn inward and beginning attacking each other. Incredibly interesting essay that does a lot to explain why we all seem to hate each other so much right now.
Rising Tether Loans Add Risk to Stablecoin, Crypto World
Theme: so apparently Tether is in the loan business, creating new USDT as a collateralized loan, instead of a cash for Tether transaction. This has the potential to be bad, but it’s difficult to say for sure. Are the loans fully collateralized? With what? How would a margin call work? Etc. Interestingly, this collateralized loan structure is similar to how the Eurodollar system works, a topic I recently wrote about.
How SBF stole customer deposits
Theme: for those outside of the crypto ecosystem, this is a good thread summarizing exactly what Sam did and how he did it. Spoiler alert, very illegal.
Man Reads Tweet He Disagrees With, Dies
Theme: Tragic story about why free speech is so dangerous.
Ethereum Reverses Post-Merge Censorship Trend
Theme: One of the reasons I like Ethereum so much is that there’s a great community of people constantly building and solving problems. OFAC censorship is an alarming problem with 70% of block builders on Ethereum now OFAC compliant. The gents over at Flashbots have proposed a solution: SUAVE, a new protocol which would take on the role of managing the mempool and proposing blocks. This is really interesting. I’m not positive it’s a perfect solution, doesn’t it create a centralization issue in itself? But it’s at least a step in the right direction. Love to see the developments.
Theme: Interesting article on the state of Russia’s economy. Key takeaway, not horrible, but certainly not great.
Best of YouTube
Markets in Turmoil - The Role of the Fed featuring Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management
Theme: Podcast episode of the week. Mike explains a structural reason why there could be a market melt up. Not a prediction, he just explains how it could happen. More importantly, a full explanation of exactly why he thinks the Fed is making a mistake by hiking rates this high. I’ve heard bits and pieces of that argument before, but here it’s presented in full. There is so much to think about.
How to Invest in Uncertain Times w/ Louis Gave
Theme: Louis explains how he sets up his portfolio in five parts. Also goes into the two asset classes that he thinks will perform the best in the next bull market, whenever that comes. Spoiler alert, emerging markets and energy.
Escape Velocity with Lacy Hunt
Theme: I didn’t love this interview. I wouldn’t want to invest based on Lacy’s ideas. I’m including this because I did love Hugh’s short ~10 minute rant at the end, where he speculates on what he would buy right now if he was running a $100 billion fund. Start the video at 1:04:00 mark.
Steven Wilkinson - Good and Prosper 2022
Theme: Brilliant interview with Sir Steve Wilkinson. So many fascinating topics, many of which I rarely hear covered in other podcasts. Societal effects of FTX blowup on millennials, housing cycle, crack up boom, personal responsibility, etc. Loved it.
Market Instability & Fed Incompetence Make 2023 A Recipe For Disaster | Michael Green
Theme: This is part 2 of the interview. I’m recommending it because in part 1 Mike covers topics that he’s explained in other interviews that I’ve linked to. This part 2 video is fascinating. Mike demolishes China and lays waste to Bitcoin (and says that maybe, just maybe, Ethereum could have some use case and is not a total fraud. High praise indeed!!!). Mike goes on to explain how demographics will shape our consumption, and why our current leadership is not up to the task of creating a better future. Plus, he tells us what he’s investing in right now.
Can Congress force a Fed pivot; What financial repression methods could policymakers employ, & more
Theme: Short but good. Interesting take on whether Congress could force the Fed to pivot as the Fed becomes insolvent.
Jeff Snider LIVE (Fixed Money vs. Money Elasticity Deep Dive)
Theme: For the monetary geeks this is pure gold. I might have to watch this entire video again, which I almost never do. A brilliant analysis on money and how humans always find a way to mess with it.
It’s time to go off topic
This 40 second video is absurd yet strangely compelling.
Thanks for sharing these, so much content to choose from these days.