What I’m thinking about
Sam Bankman-Fried is enjoying his new residency at Fox Hill prison in the Bahamas, which is rumored to be a 1 star accommodation (the reviews for Rikers Island prison in NYC are hilarious). SBS’s imprisonment warms the heart, and provides endless fodder for humor. Reading through a Reddit thread I found one commentator who expressed concern that Bankman-Fried might not ever see Caroline’s lovely face again. Someone replied,
He can easily simulate that by plopping a handful of mashed potatoes on his cell mate's back
That made me laugh…
Turning to markets I’ll say the same thing I’ve been saying for weeks, I’m bearish. I think we’re going lower. Probably retest the October lows at least. Could we break through and head to 3,200? Sure. Who knows. Anyone who claims to know precisely where the markets bottom is a charlatan.
That all being said, I do expect that we’re getting closer to a point of an ultimate bottom. This bear market has been going on for a while. In the coming weeks/months I will be looking to fill my bags and make my long term, multi-year bets. Ideally we’ll have a few limit down days, massive VIX spikes and that could truly be the final capitulation. We shall see. Until then, on with the show…
Best of articles
Theme: Article of the week. I’m not even going to summarize it, this is one you just have to read and it’s not very long.
Theme: Excellent Bob Loukas twitter thread on trading, making mistakes, learning to think for yourself
Theme: Free Doomberg article, these don’t come along too often.
Theme: Interesting article on share buybacks. Are they a good thing?
Theme: Some good charts in here, basic argument being that the recession might not be as bad as everyone is anticipating.
Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency
Theme: Crypto might not be *quite* as filled to the brim with scams as popular perception would have it. Crypto: now 10% scam free!
5 DeFi Metrics Surging Post-FTX
Theme: It’s often more useful to look at TVL (total value locked) as denominated in crypto rather than dollars. Pretty cool to see that Arbitrum is still near an ATH. Actually really interesting to see that especially since gas fees on Ethereum have been so low recently. Suggests that when crypto recovers in 2043, and gas fees are high again, Arbitrum usage could really rocket higher
Best of YouTube
Why Odds Of Recession Are Now 99% | George Gammon
Theme: George shares why he thinks a recession is likely, what the yield curves are tell us and whether there will be a market crash.
Ted Oakley - Oxbow Advisors - Kitco News
Theme: I’m a big fan of Ted, he’s got his head screwed on straight. If I was going to give my money to a family office to manage, I’d trust it with Ted.
To Hedge or Not to Hedge...That is the Question
Theme: I learned more from this interview than I did in my entire freshmen year of college. I’m familiar with Ben’s work on narratives, but I still found a lot of value here.
We *really* need to burn it down and start again from scratch
Theme: In troubled times like these, it’s cathartic to hear Jeff Snider call the FOMC board members a bunch of jackasses. No, the Fed is not at the center of the monetary universe…
Felix Zulauf Webinar with Arthur Hayes and Moderator Laura Shin
Theme: Engaging conversation, Felix really lays out his projections for markets in the next two years. Arthur tells us when BTC $100k.
The Moment Everyone Has Been Waiting For: Bear Market Rallies In 2022 Have Seen This Same Reading
Theme: Good video about the relationship between TLT and market rallies. Tl;Dr in 2022 every time there’s been a huge inflow into TLT (as is happening right now), it’s marked the local top in the equities market.
A Historian Explains Being Gen-Z
Theme: I thought this video was outstanding. Instant subscribe to the channel.
It’s time to go off topic
I thought I would just watch a few minutes of this video then shut it off. Well, 20 minutes later…