November week 2 - Best podcasts & articles
Crypto in flames
What I’m thinking about
It would have been better if FTX had not turned out to be a massive fraud. None of this is particularly good for the crypto ecosystem, and indeed all the people who have lost money. Everyone and their grandfather is writing about what happened, so I won’t contribute anymore to the maelstrom of spilled ink. If you want a fast take, here’s the most bearish Tweet I’ve come across, and then an optimistic take from Bob Loukas.
I’m rather expecting bearish price action in all markets this coming week. I’m of the opinion that we’ve got a scam pump going on in the S&P 500 driven by god knows what… Short covering, delta hedging, divine intervention, whatever. Pick your favorite thing that is not fundamentals. I think we’re going to end the week with a lower S&P print and lower crypto prices. So on that uplifting note, here’s what I enjoyed this week.
Best of articles
Stock Buybacks!â„¢ and the Monetization of Stock-Based Compensation
Theme: Excellent article from Ben Hunt, illustrating how stock buybacks from large companies like Meta and Google have not actually benefited shareholders.
Theme: There’s no shortage of people writing about the FTX conflagration, yours truly included, but Arthur Hayes has done a nice job summing it up. You’ll notice that unlike many other people, he’s actually fairly complimentary to SBF and a bit biased towards forgiveness and acceptance. So that could make this a nice balance against many others who are saying far meaner things. If you want to geek out on exchange outflows and tracking coins/loans all over he cryptoverse, this is a good article.
15 Job Qualifications To Work For The Fed
Theme: lighten up your day with a bit of humor. It’s funny because it’s true.
Theme: Presented for your reading consideration, one of the rarest items in the world: a nuanced take on Tether and its backing, or lack thereof. Short read, but quite good.
Best of YouTube
Due Diligence Daisy Chains [FTX] S03:E12
Theme: Clear winner for episode of the week right here. I recommend starting from the 10 minute mark, but after that it’s an amazing journey. Some perspective on the market for trading locked FTX accounts, unique take on the blow up, then into an epic discussion on volatility and why a positive carry hedge is a unicorn. So glad I listened to this one.
ReSolve Riffs with Mike Green on the Visible Hand, a Passive Singularity, and Pivoting to Optimism
Theme: This was a tough interview. Having 3 hosts and 1 guest is probably an objectively bad idea. Especially Adam Butler who dominates the conversation and comes across (IMO) as a pompous contrarian ass. That being said, I watched the whole thing and liked it. If you’re short of time, I might recommend starting from the 1 hour mark and watching to the end.
LIVE IN BOSTON! (2022 World Tour)
Theme: Another Hugh video that covers some of the same information as previous videos. However, I particularly liked this one because it’s the first time that I’ve really understood why Hugh says that the Chinese Juan should be valued at 4.5 not 7. Also, how China has screwed over their lower and middle class, just to prop up the Juan. Very interesting. I’m starting to form a clearer picture of the global financial system and the role that currency values play.
Finance Unspun Episode 12: More Fed Rate Hikes Show Us Who Was Swimming Naked When The Tide Goes Out
Theme: I think these weekly recaps are truly outstanding. Although I’m often familiar with the stories, it’s great to hear two professional investors talk about their take on what’s happening. Plus, these episodes are entertaining! Look forward to it every week.
Emil is back with a wild story from Iceland - where bankers actually went to jail for '08
Theme: Interesting interview about how the ‘08 financial crisis manifested in Iceland. Guest is incredibly articulate, interesting stories. He graduated from MIT, makes sense.
Lead-Lag Live: What The Freight Markets Are Saying Now With Craig Fuller
Theme: I found this one awfully damn interesting. Freight transport as an economic predictor, why China reopening might not have such a big effect on inflation/consumer prices, the bullwhip effect on inflation, etc. Craig Fuller is a passionate speaker and the hour flew by.
Commodities in an Age of Scarcity
Theme: A masterclass in oil, commodities and central banking. Outstanding episode. Before watching you must understand the difference between contango and backwardation, see here for a guide on these two terms.
Way too many uncomfortably close parallels between Oct '07 and Oct '22 to ignore like we're told to
Theme: Here we have an excellent video illustrating just how out of touch the Fed can be. In this case, Jeff brings up a bunch of data from 2008 just prior to the mega collapse, and shows how the Fed was not worried even though the market was pricing in financial hell. He then compares that to today, where again, the markets (curve inversions) are pricing in bad things, but the Fed is ignoring it all. Great information.
It’s time to go off topic
Two minutes of comedic gold.
