Week 7 Rollup - Best podcasts & articles
The AI has gone rogue
What I’m thinking about
Like many others before me, as a youngling I was a fool. I thought that because my parents were divorced, and I’d had to work a part time job through college, plus a few other odds and ends, that I had faced adversity. Oh I had it tough, I mused with the ignorance that youth imbues.
When I was living in Russia I shared this story of hardship with my then girlfriend and she looked at me with unconcealed scorn. She replied cooly, “some of my University classmates ate out of the dumpster behind the cafeteria.”
She put me in my place so thoroughly that I’ve never forgotten it. In retrospect her comment proved to be a life-changing epiphany, as I was forced to reevaluate how I saw myself and my circumstances. Gone were the days of believing I had it tough. Instead, a daily appreciation of how lucky I’ve been.
I’m sharing this story because it’s one of my favorites and also because I have absolutely nothing to say about markets. For me it was an uneventful week and I was largely focused on other things. So let’s waste no more precious time and get straight down to business.
Worth checking out
If Tesla wants to qualify for the next round of government EV subsidies they’re going to have to open up their charging network to competitors. I’m in favor of this. It doesn’t make sense to have incompatible charging stations all over the country.
For the marketers out there, I found this interesting tool called Surfkey. With Surfkey you set a keyword and then the app tells you every time someone mentions that keyword on Reddit. I haven’t used it yet, I probably will in the future, but I’ve seen plenty of people say that it works great.
A few days ago I watched this video, about how the airline industry uses outdated tech which leaves it highly vulnerable to catastrophes. Then I read a story that rammed this point home: Lufthansa had to ground its entire fleet because some dude in overalls accidentally cut a broadband cable. The western world has an infrastructure problem and it’s not going to get better if we don’t make it better.
I’m neutral on Balaji but I know a lot of people like him so it’s worth sharing that he’s started his own podcast and his first guest is Vitalik.
Cool thread from Paulo Macro about the disconnect between the real economy and the financial markets.
What y’all are into
By popular demand (just kidding, nobody asked for this but me) I’m going to start sharing the most popular content from the previous week’s Rollup. This being an investing newsletter, naturally the most clicked on link from last week was for the mosquito trap.
Best articles
I had to read this article very slowly to make sure I understood it all, but worth the effort! Joseph Wang points out how QT is likely to increase deposit rates at banks, and how this will decrease the number of people turning to speculative assets to earn a return since their accounts actually yield some interest. Excellent article with a new perspective to consider.
Retire with Fire and Guarantee a Life of Suffering
The BowTied Bull goes to war with the Fire (Financial Independence, Retire Early) crowd. For those unfamiliar with Fire, the basic concept is to live frugally, save a bunch of money and then retire as early as possible while living out your life on a tight budget but hey, it’s better than being beholden to a boss. Pretty good on paper, but harder to execute in real life.
For example, I would wager that many Firees structured their portfolios around the inverse correlation between stocks and bonds. Then 2022 came along and curb stomped that safety net. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
The Most Important Lessons People Often Learn Too Late in Life
The title tells you everything you need to know about this short article from Tim Denning. You only live once so you should probably get after it.
In case you missed it Doomberg released their first free article in ages. Turns out the accident in Ohio probably isn’t as bad as it’s been made out to be. The press exaggerating a story? I’m shocked.
Friday Highlight Reel: Edition #2
This new format from David Hay’s Substack is really cool. It’s similar to this newsletter: a quote/story/interview excerpt followed by some interpretation and analysis.
Best of YouTube
Mark Mills: The energy transition delusion: inescapable mineral realities
Wow! Mark has top 5% charisma on stage. This is the fastest that 40 minutes has ever gone by. Laying aside all climate change politics and even the debate about carbon, all of it. Just ask: what are we capable of doing based on the amount of metals and minerals we can actually mine. Or as Doomberg always puts it, the debate between platitudes and physics. Well, here’s the physics!
“I use the word delusion, and by delusion I don’t mean that people are delusional about their aspirations, I think they’re suffering some modest delusion about what the possibilities are in the mining sector.”
I spent 10 minutes reading the YouTube comments on this video and the two main criticisms are: not taking into account the role that recycling will play, and failing to account for future tech breakthroughs such that batteries don’t require as many minerals/metals. I think the recycling argument has some real validity, but from everything I’ve heard it’s not clear that there are any large battery innovations just around the corner.
China cancels lockdowns... where's the disaster?
Louis is back on the show to talk about the Covid surge in China, how it’s affecting society, whether mainstream media is trustworthy, and finally: why he doesn’t think that China is going to invade Taiwan. Louis brings up a very interesting point I was unaware of. In WWII the United States briefly considered invading Taiwan so they could use the island as a staging post.
However, after analyzing the terrain and all the obstacles, the Americans decided that an invasion would be impossible. The Americans, the most invasion happy people in the world! Didn’t go for Taiwan which gives you some sense of how well guarded the island is.
The Truth About Davos, WEF & Klaus Schwab
My father has started eating cookies made out of cricket powder and every time I go home he offers me some. I refuse on principle, damn the WEF and their bug eating agenda! Anyways… I liked this conversation because Michael doesn’t delve into the fantastical, he just states the fact.
What the WEF is, how it operates, how it funds itself, what its goals are, etc. Near the end of the conversation Michael lays out a common sense political platform that he believes a majority of Americans would support.
Keeping it Simple w/Simplify | Ep. 21: Do I Feel Lucky?
Any time Corey Hoffstein enters the chat there’s a 100% chance that the conversation is going to be about options, curve structures, the Greek alphabet and lots of other advanced concepts. So I’m pleased to report that while this conversation did drift towards the complex, it’s by and large decipherable to the laymen.
The core theme is how the timing of portfolio rebalancing can affect performance. Some excellent examples are given, then Corey shares strategies that investors can use to mitigate the random effect produced by infrequent portfolio rebalancing. The Tl;Dr on that is too simply rebalance smaller bits of your portfolio a lot more often.
Market To Drop Once It Realizes Fed Pivot Not Happening Soon
The key point from this interview is that nobody knows what’s going to happen in these crazy markets. Grant admits that he’s fairly baffled, and goes on to say that many of the guests he’s had on his own podcast don’t claim to have all the answers either. These markets are damn tough and making money in them is no simple matter.
This week’s off topic video is…
You wouldn’t believe how many hours I’ve spent watching Skeedkar99 break down engines. I’ve learned about timing belts vs chains, camshafts, connecting rods, pushrods, port vs direct injection, tensioners, oil control rings, balance shafts and so much more. After a Speedkar marathon I’ve got a solid grounding in how internal combustion engines work. Although… I still don’t fully understand differentials, or why having more of them is better.
My favorite AI image is…
Dark galactic moments
I hope you get more readers. I really, really enjoy your ‘Stack.
A thought: Maybe you could leave some comments on more popular Substacks and include a link to a relevant article of yours? I see other Substackers do this and it has led me to subscribe to a couple more publications.
Feel free to ignore this advice if not welcome!
Also: I realize I ought to put my money where my mouth is, and subscribe. I can only afford 3-5 subscriptions; I’m working on a principle of rolling some out, and others in; I do plan to pay for a subscription to your Substack as soon as I can.