I have four comments to make about the China-US rivalry.
1.) The US does not have Allies. It has vassal states that must suck up to Washington. Any country that shows independence from the US is punished either economically, by political coup or militarily, or all three.
2.) China will catch up in the chip war. It is just a matter of time and resources. Until then, it can get all the most advanced chips it needs for its military on the black market.
Think that they will not catch up? Dream on. In 1945, the US was the only country that had the bomb. Four years later the USSR had it. Now even dirt-poor North Korea has it.
3.) An all out war between China and the US will quickly go nuclear. The US is not willing to fight a new Korean War, especially one on a much larger scale, so within weeks, the US will use one or more of its new tiny nukes to intimidate the Chinese. Within days, the nukes on both sides will fly.
4. American society is starting to become unglued. It is the wokes against the conservatives, the drug addicts and the mentally ill sleeping on the streets against the taxpayers. The education system graduates too many high school kids who can't read or do simple math.
1 - Fair enough. Nothing makes this clearer than reading Economic Hitman.
2 - The problem is that these supply chains are so infinitely complex that's it's extremely difficult for one country to control everything. As I hope I made clear, there is no single country making cutting edge chips by itself.
3 - That's depressing.
4 - Another fair point, but not sure that it relates to semiconductors.
There is no reason to believe that there will be another American civil war.
We will have to wait out the present storms. I see America, and Canada, being like the Weimar Republic and Tsar's Russia. Societies that are a lot weaker than they realize. How that will play out? I have no idea.
I never knew so much about semiconductors. Interesting how integral they are.
They're a part of everything now... I'm pretty sure even my dog has a few semiconductors in her
I have four comments to make about the China-US rivalry.
1.) The US does not have Allies. It has vassal states that must suck up to Washington. Any country that shows independence from the US is punished either economically, by political coup or militarily, or all three.
2.) China will catch up in the chip war. It is just a matter of time and resources. Until then, it can get all the most advanced chips it needs for its military on the black market.
Think that they will not catch up? Dream on. In 1945, the US was the only country that had the bomb. Four years later the USSR had it. Now even dirt-poor North Korea has it.
3.) An all out war between China and the US will quickly go nuclear. The US is not willing to fight a new Korean War, especially one on a much larger scale, so within weeks, the US will use one or more of its new tiny nukes to intimidate the Chinese. Within days, the nukes on both sides will fly.
4. American society is starting to become unglued. It is the wokes against the conservatives, the drug addicts and the mentally ill sleeping on the streets against the taxpayers. The education system graduates too many high school kids who can't read or do simple math.
1 - Fair enough. Nothing makes this clearer than reading Economic Hitman.
2 - The problem is that these supply chains are so infinitely complex that's it's extremely difficult for one country to control everything. As I hope I made clear, there is no single country making cutting edge chips by itself.
3 - That's depressing.
4 - Another fair point, but not sure that it relates to semiconductors.
Great points. Do you think the groups are getting to the point of in-fighting or even civil war, or are Americans too comfortable for that to happen?
There is no reason to believe that there will be another American civil war.
We will have to wait out the present storms. I see America, and Canada, being like the Weimar Republic and Tsar's Russia. Societies that are a lot weaker than they realize. How that will play out? I have no idea.