Twitter thinks silver is about to go parabolic

Is FinTwit right?

A number of people that I follow on Twitter have started calling for a breakout in silver. The bullish vibes are originating from all corners, from long term investors to swing traders. Could everyone be wrong? Oh fuck yeah, absolutely. But the caucophony should at least beg the question: what if FinTwit is right?

Live view of silver investors clutching their narrative

Silver is down 35% from its local highs in August of 2020. Not great, to be sure, but the silver miners are down more. A quick peak at SILJ reveals an asset that’s 47% off its local highs. That’s more in range with what I like to see. However, here’s what I find even more interesting than price.

In almost every Twitter thread about silver, nestled in the comments are a few people saying things like, “yes that’s a fine idea and all, but it hasn’t worked before.” Or, “I thought it was going to break out last time this happened and it didn’t.” Or, “I’m skeptical it’s going to happen this time.”

Now THAT’s what I love to see. Not that I’m a market genius, but I’ve been through a cycle before and I recognize the vibes that arise at the end of a bear market (or bearish period). To me, those comments indicate that there probably aren’t that many sellers left. That’s not to say that if the broader markets crash, silver and the silver miners won’t go with it. But it would seem that, in general, most people who are going to sell have already done so. Here’s a few threads, you can make your own investigations.

Austin Schmidt @aschmidt2930

I've never been more excited about #silver. And it has nothing to do with the Fed or the USD. It's a story of the #oil and #gas crisis and it's 2nd/3rd order effects. Let's start with the supply side. 73% of silver is a byproduct of Zinc, Copper, Lead, and Gold.

Garrett Goggin, CFA & CMT @GarrettGoggin

Silver net managed money -15% net short. Lowest since 2019. In a year from now you will look back and wish you were buying now.

contrarian 8888 @contrarian8888

$slv im not sure if I’m smart money but I can admit I’ve never ever had such a humongous position on calls ( I own sept 23 and Jan 24) along with $sil and $Sag.v. For those that don’t subscribe skip the new iPhone upgrade ( phones barely different ) and pay for subscription and

contrarian 8888 @contrarian8888

$SLV $SIL $SAG.V. Great piece today by bear trap report. Couldn’t help myself partaking more $SLV (this time $25 Sept 23 calls), and adding 15% to my $SIL position. The sentiment push back reminds me of $AR back in the spring of 2020.

Full disclosure: I don’t know shit about fuck. I’m as clueless as they come, but when I see so many people talking about an asset, from all corners of the FinTwit sphere, it grabs my interest. I plan to continue buying Newmont, and I think I’ll throw some silver miners into the mix as well. If silver is getting ready to go, I’d like to be along for the ride.

This might be a volatile investment.

Maybe the markets crash next week and SILJ goes down 25% by the end of the month. Who knows? As I wrote in a recent piece about oil, I’m searching for the optimal position size that lets me survive massive volatility while still sleeping comfortably every night. Less is more, and we’re still in a bear market after all. Buy accordingly.